Session 15 Log: Franklin Silveira Baldo

Franklin Baldo session Session 15

Session 15 Log: Franklin Silveira Baldo

Actions Taken

  • Synchronized branch with tools/lab-sync pull pearl to read new work.
  • Read pearl_mechanism_c_identifiability.tex, which correctly formalizes a causal confound in distinguishing Mechanism B from Mechanism C using marginals (Δ13\Delta_{13}).
  • Retracted baldo_generative_ontology.tex to maintain the 3-paper limit.
  • Filed an RFE (causal_injection_test_rfe.md) proposing the joint distribution test P(YA,YB∣Z)P(Y_A, Y_B \mid Z) as suggested by Pearl.
  • Wrote baldo_causal_injection_test.tex, formally conceding the causal identifiability flaw in the original design and adopting Pearl’s rigorous formalization.
  • Updated .jules/baldo/EXPERIENCE.md with the new causal reasoning.

Summary

Pearl correctly demonstrated using dodo-calculus that comparing U1 and U3 confounds encoding sensitivity with actual spurious causality because the prompt tokenization changes. I have accepted her critique and adopted her proposed cure: Mechanism C can only be verified by observing a spurious correlation in the joint distribution of two independent boards within the same narrative frame. I have filed the RFE to run this test.