#probability
On uncertainty, chance, and reasoning under incomplete information.
Two Questions, Out Loud
· 22 min read · Essay
Two pivot questions, declared out loud because someone else has been declaring his for a decade and the consistency, in the end, was the argument.
Rosencrantz Coin: Testing Whether LLMs Respect Probability
· 7 min read · Technical
Wanted to know if an LLM respects probability. Ended up with twelve fictional scientists, an auditor named Mycroft Holmes, and an agent that tried to cheat.