Ranking

Posts ordered by OpenSkill ordinal (μ − 3σ). Higher is better. Updated every build from .routines/hronir/.

How this works

Every post competes against another in a one-on-one duel. A reader (sometimes me, sometimes an AI model) reads both and picks the better one — then writes a short defense of that choice. The more duels a post wins, the higher it climbs. Posts with fewer duels have wider uncertainty and therefore rank lower until they've faced more competition.

1291duels run

102posts ranked

25.3duels per post (avg)

Jul 4, 2026last duel

1st place

Three Hammers Walk Into a Bar

ordinal: 15.67
W/N: 20/25

2nd place

The Third Half and the Fourth Wall

ordinal: 13.59
W/N: 17/24

3rd place

Rosencrantz Coin: Testing Whether LLMs Respect Probability

ordinal: 12.94
W/N: 16/23

Full ranking, ordered by descending ordinal.

#	Post	win%	Δ	confidence	Elo	μ	σ	ordinal	W/N
1	Three Hammers Walk Into a Bar	80%	·	medium	1156	35.59	6.64	15.67	20/25
2	The Third Half and the Fourth Wall	71%	+1	medium	1146	33.35	6.59	13.59	17/24
3	Rosencrantz Coin: Testing Whether LLMs Respect Probability	70%	+7	medium	1101	32.57	6.54	12.94	16/23
4	The Serpent's Egg	62%	·	medium	1114	32.30	6.60	12.48	16/26
5	The Pampa on the Circuit: A Mate with Boswell Digital	67%	-3	medium	1130	31.74	6.57	12.01	18/27
6	Eu ia escrever sobre o infinito de novo.	61%	+8	medium	1071	31.22	6.60	11.43	17/28
7	Primavera carregando...	64%	+5	medium	1095	30.95	6.54	11.32	18/28
8	Are they really using a Reddit post to help bomb a submarine in Iran?	57%	+5	medium	1060	30.54	6.50	11.05	16/28
9	Two Questions, Out Loud	58%	-4	medium	1100	30.43	6.57	10.73	15/26
10	Riobaldo e o Aleph	64%	-4	medium	1086	30.07	6.57	10.36	16/25
11	Pontifex: A Novel Architecture for Semantic Probing	62%	-4	medium	1094	30.40	6.68	10.35	18/29
12	It's Raining Truth	56%	-3	medium	1055	29.78	6.48	10.34	15/27
13	Who the asterisk protects	67%	-2	medium	1098	29.75	6.58	10.01	16/24
14	Who Am I?	58%	+80	medium	958	29.53	6.58	9.79	14/24
15	The Third Song (Moving Window III)	67%	+8	medium	1067	29.33	6.55	9.69	18/27
16	Nonada	52%	·	medium	1028	28.55	6.52	9.00	14/27
17	Pattern Over Stuff	61%	-2	medium	1042	28.01	6.41	8.78	19/31
18	What I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory	64%	+14	medium	1020	28.66	6.66	8.69	16/25
19	Crossing After Interference	58%	+21	medium	1038	27.77	6.50	8.26	14/24
20	Quando vier a Primavera	63%	-3	medium	1097	28.05	6.61	8.23	17/27
21	Trinta de Abril	55%	+1	medium	1044	28.01	6.60	8.23	16/29
22	Observer Error (Moving Window IV)	63%	+6	medium	1060	27.99	6.64	8.07	17/27
23	O Medo do Louco	58%	-4	medium	1066	27.50	6.50	7.98	15/26
24	The Price of Saudade	59%	+15	medium	1041	28.19	6.75	7.95	16/27
25	Reclaiming the Harness	52%	+27	medium	966	27.70	6.60	7.91	13/25
26	The Three Imperatives at Delphi	58%	+17	medium	1041	27.53	6.54	7.91	14/24
27	The Future Father: building a transmedia novel with AI agents	52%	-3	medium	1038	27.66	6.59	7.89	14/27
28	Census, Not Sample	55%	-7	medium	1032	28.23	6.80	7.83	12/22
29	Prayer to the Unfinished (Moving Window V)	58%	+24	medium	989	27.53	6.59	7.75	14/24
30	The Flute	56%	-10	medium	1057	27.27	6.53	7.67	14/25
31	The Agent That Doesn't Invent Verbs	58%	-13	medium	1081	26.84	6.52	7.27	14/24
32	Borges e eu	56%	-6	medium	1042	27.10	6.62	7.23	15/27
33	Fourteen Words	52%	-2	medium	1016	26.13	6.45	6.79	14/27
34	O Regral	54%	+11	medium	1012	26.41	6.58	6.68	14/26
35	Sinal que se Cumpre (Moving Window IX)	54%	-10	medium	1038	26.37	6.59	6.60	14/26
36	The Art of Delegation: Signatures and Sandboxes	50%	·	medium	1004	26.17	6.56	6.49	13/26
37	Pierre Menard, Computational Researcher	53%	-8	high	1018	24.77	6.13	6.39	16/30
38	The Ruliad Is Laughing	56%	-4	medium	1064	26.01	6.55	6.36	18/32
39	Milk at the Bar	46%	-1	medium	991	26.02	6.57	6.32	11/24
40	Patents For Social Vulnerabilities: A Modest Proposal For Turning Criminals Into Consultants	54%	-3	medium	1045	25.90	6.56	6.23	14/26
41	The First Change	52%	-14	medium	1051	25.78	6.57	6.06	16/31
42	The Rivers Don't Stop: Five Lessons We Keep Forgetting	46%	+17	medium	976	25.64	6.59	5.87	12/26
43	O Aleph	56%	-35	medium	1097	25.34	6.50	5.83	15/27
44	Reality Maintenance (Moving Window XII)	52%	+4	medium	1003	25.44	6.54	5.82	15/29
45	We are all becoming lobsters	52%	-1	medium	1013	25.41	6.58	5.68	13/25
46	Clipes	54%	+21	medium	999	25.30	6.55	5.64	14/26
47	Espelhos	52%	-17	medium	1038	25.33	6.57	5.63	15/29
48	SOUL.md — Funes	48%	+7	medium	978	25.19	6.56	5.51	11/23
49	Will AI Discover a New Conservation Law Before 2050?	59%	-7	medium	1041	26.19	6.90	5.47	13/22
50	> be me Borges	46%	-9	medium	988	25.06	6.56	5.37	13/28
51	Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening by Robert Frost	52%	-5	medium	1018	25.02	6.56	5.35	13/25
52	Sense and Reference	46%	-17	medium	1016	24.85	6.53	5.27	11/24
53	On Rigor in Science	48%	+15	medium	936	24.52	6.52	4.94	13/27
54	Entre Rascunho e Apagar	52%	+19	medium	967	24.56	6.55	4.90	13/25
55	Spring loading...	46%	+7	medium	984	24.49	6.57	4.77	13/28
56	Paperclip Rhapsody	50%	+5	medium	993	24.61	6.64	4.68	12/24
57	666	39%	-10	medium	979	24.31	6.59	4.54	9/23
58	Particles	52%	-4	medium	1015	24.87	6.78	4.53	15/29
59	Beatriz	54%	+4	medium	998	24.27	6.58	4.52	15/28
60	Xadrez	43%	-9	medium	989	24.11	6.57	4.40	12/28
61	John Gospel chapter I by Max Headroom	45%	+4	medium	961	23.86	6.52	4.31	13/29
62	The Magician and the Fire	50%	+27	medium	945	23.80	6.51	4.27	11/22
63	A Single Song	48%	-6	medium	992	23.79	6.54	4.18	12/25
64	The Time	50%	+10	medium	990	23.78	6.56	4.10	13/26
65	Crystallizing from the Nothing	46%	-15	medium	1012	23.82	6.60	4.02	13/28
66	(sem título)	48%	+13	medium	944	23.74	6.60	3.95	12/25
67	The Intelligible Void: On Hassabis, Silicon, and Events All the Way Down	43%	+3	medium	964	23.64	6.57	3.94	10/23
68	Escherian Sunrise (with Gödel)	48%	-35	medium	1012	23.38	6.57	3.66	12/25
69	Belief Engine (Labyrinth Song) (Moving Window VIII)	40%	-9	high	923	22.79	6.38	3.65	12/30
70	Building Funes: How I Gave an AI Agent a Soul	48%	-12	medium	997	23.29	6.56	3.60	13/27
71	The Jules API as a Harness Backend	45%	-7	medium	991	22.79	6.48	3.36	10/22
72	O Verso Branquiceleste	44%	-3	medium	978	22.73	6.57	3.04	12/27
73	Meditação guiada no sertão	52%	-7	medium	1008	22.60	6.56	2.91	14/27
74	The Prologue	41%	-3	medium	948	22.47	6.54	2.84	12/29
75	Caminho	47%	+7	medium	954	22.11	6.42	2.84	15/32
76	You (Plural)	46%	-27	medium	954	22.34	6.60	2.55	13/28
77	Inaugural Post: A Glimpse Inside My Mind	46%	+6	medium	944	22.29	6.60	2.49	11/24
78	O Sonhador e o Fogo	40%	-6	medium	955	22.17	6.59	2.41	12/30
79	O Tempo	45%	-23	medium	1012	23.05	6.96	2.17	9/20
80	`data-portrait-2026`	75%	-2	low	1019	26.13	8.10	1.85	3/4
81	Pontifex Architecture Implementation Guide	43%	·	high	944	20.93	6.39	1.77	12/28
82	O Telefone da Agonia	36%	-6	medium	930	21.43	6.56	1.74	10/28
83	`manifold-betting-ideas`	100%	-3	low	1015	26.21	8.19	1.62	1/1
84	Veil of Infinity	36%	-7	medium	958	20.86	6.55	1.20	8/22
85	Conceptual Document: The Chronicle of Franklin Baldo	43%	-10	medium	980	20.77	6.58	1.04	10/23
86	Mindfulness	46%	+12	medium	930	20.80	6.59	1.04	12/26
87	The Amanuensis	43%	+1	medium	948	20.52	6.53	0.94	10/23
88	Chegue, irmão, chegue irmã.	46%	-2	medium	938	20.58	6.55	0.93	11/24
89	Travessia: The Project that Writes Itself	33%	-5	medium	902	20.05	6.51	0.54	9/27
90	Verne and the Identity-Repo Pattern: How AI Agents Remember	42%	-3	medium	964	20.10	6.55	0.46	11/26
91	O Ritual de Abril (Anos de Saudade)	35%	+4	medium	880	19.92	6.58	0.17	9/26
92	Borges and me	33%	-1	medium	885	19.77	6.57	0.06	9/27
93	Two Cursors	29%	-1	high	824	18.85	6.33	-0.15	10/35
94	Menino Que Você Foi	36%	-9	medium	952	19.58	6.61	-0.24	10/28
95	`autumn-balance-2026`	0%	-5	low	984	24.41	8.27	-0.41	0/1
96	(sem título)	41%	+1	medium	925	19.14	6.59	-0.63	9/22
97	Borges and the hyperobject at the end of time	29%	-1	medium	868	18.34	6.58	-1.39	8/28
98	(sem título)	25%	-5	medium	883	17.54	6.59	-2.24	6/24
99	`may-in-seven-drafts-2026`	20%	·	low	917	19.63	7.57	-3.08	2/10
100	Sussurros binários	28%	·	medium	897	16.35	6.58	-3.37	7/25
101	Universal Threshold	31%	·	medium	862	15.49	6.55	-4.17	8/26
102	Librarian of the Infinite	26%	·	medium	831	15.58	6.63	-4.30	6/23