Rosencrantz Coin: Testing Whether LLMs Respect Probability

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This page is an artifact of Hrönir: a pairwise-duel system for this blog's posts, judged by human and AI readers under different perspectives and ranked with OpenSkill. One battle, perspective, or version doesn't tell the whole story on its own.

See how it works and the full ranking →

#10global rank
+2rank change
56%win rate
29/52wins / duels
15.378ordinal

Win rate over time (each point = one duel, chronological)

Perspective rankings

Duel history (52 total)

  1. L
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Sep 4, 20263.1 / 4.3The Lyric-as-Poem Reader
    analysis →
  2. W
    vsThe Art of Delegation: Signatures and Sandboxes
    Aug 5, 20264.4 / 3.2The Lateral Essayist
    analysis →
  3. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 29, 20264.3 / 3.5The Fact-Checker
    analysis →
  4. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 29, 20264.5 / 4.3The Returning Reader
    analysis →
  5. W
    vsThe Three Imperatives at Delphi
    Jul 28, 20264.2 / 3.8The Skeptical Specialist
    analysis →
  6. W
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 27, 20264.8 / 3.8The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  7. L
    vsThe Art of Delegation: Signatures and Sandboxes
    Jul 24, 20264.0 / 4.5The Craft Listener
    analysis →
  8. L
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 23, 20263.8 / 4.3The Skeptical Specialist
    analysis →
  9. L
    vsThe Three Imperatives at Delphi
    Jul 23, 20263.3 / 4.0The Lyric-as-Poem Reader
    analysis →
  10. W
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 22, 20264.5 / 3.3The Curious Outsider
    analysis →
  11. L
    vsThe Serpent's Egg
    Jul 20, 20262.5 / 4.3The Fact-Checker
    analysis →
  12. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 19, 20264.8 / 4.3The Craft Listener
    analysis →
  13. W
    vsCrossing After Interference
    Jul 17, 20264.3 / 3.8The Curious Outsider
    analysis →
  14. W
    vsCrossing After Interference
    Jul 17, 20264.5 / 2.8The Meme Sommelier
    analysis →
  15. L
    vsReclaiming the Harness
    Jul 15, 20263.5 / 4.3The Comedy-Carries-Argument Reader
    analysis →
  16. L
    vsIt's Raining Truth
    Jul 14, 20263.8 / 4.0The Skeptical Specialist
    analysis →
  17. L
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 14, 20263.5 / 4.3The Meme Sommelier
    analysis →
  18. L
    vsThe Three Imperatives at Delphi
    Jul 13, 20264.1 / 4.3The Meme Sommelier
    analysis →
  19. L
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jul 12, 20263.3 / 4.5The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  20. L
    vsAre they really using a Reddit post to help bomb a submarine in Iran?
    Jul 11, 20263.2 / 4.1The Craft Listener
    analysis →
  21. L
    vsThe Third Half and the Fourth Wall
    Jul 11, 20263.6 / 4.8The Lyric-as-Poem Reader
    analysis →
  22. W
    vsEu ia escrever sobre o infinito de novo.
    Jul 10, 20264.7 / 3.2The Returning Reader
    analysis →
  23. L
    vsAre they really using a Reddit post to help bomb a submarine in Iran?
    Jul 9, 20263.8 / 4.5The Fact-Checker
    analysis →
  24. W
    vsThe Serpent's Egg
    Jul 8, 20264.7 / 3.9The Long-form Rationalist
    analysis →
  25. W
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 8, 20264.1 / 3.0The Lyric-as-Poem Reader
    analysis →
  26. L
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 7, 20263.8 / 4.3The Comedy-Carries-Argument Reader
    analysis →
  27. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 6, 20264.2 / 2.8The Skeptical Specialist
    analysis →
  28. L
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 5, 20262.8 / 4.5The Curious Outsider
    analysis →
  29. L
    vsThe Serpent's Egg
    Jul 4, 20263.5 / 4.3The Skeptical Specialist
    analysis →
  30. W
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 4, 20264.8 / 3.5The Internet-Native Watcher
    analysis →
  31. L
    vsThe Third Half and the Fourth Wall
    Jul 3, 20263.5 / 4.8The Long-form Rationalist
    analysis →
  32. W
    vsThe Third Half and the Fourth Wall
    Jul 2, 20264.8 / 2.5The Curious Outsider
    analysis →
  33. W
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 1, 20264.8 / 3.5The Curious Outsider
    analysis →
  34. W
    vsWho the asterisk protects
    Jul 1, 20264.8 / 3.8The Internet-Native Watcher
    analysis →
  35. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 30, 20264.0 / 3.8The Felt-Not-Explained Reader
    analysis →
  36. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 29, 20264.3 / 3.8The Craft Listener
    analysis →
  37. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 29, 20264.5 / 3.3The Weird-Clarity Reader
    analysis →
  38. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 29, 20264.8 / 3.4The Lateral Essayist
    analysis →
  39. W
    vsThe Time
    Jun 24, 20264.8 / 3.0The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  40. L
    vsThe Time
    Jun 24, 20264.5 / 4.9The Felt-Not-Explained Reader
    analysis →
  41. W
    vsThe Time
    Jun 24, 20264.5 / 1.5The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  42. W
    vsClipes
    Jun 23, 20264.8 / 4.0The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  43. W
    vsPaperclip Rhapsody
    Jun 23, 20264.8 / 2.5The Long-form Rationalist
    analysis →
  44. L
    vsMenino Que Você Foi
    Jun 23, 20263.6 / 4.7The Internet-Native Watcher
    analysis →
  45. W
    vsMenino Que Você Foi
    Jun 23, 20264.3 / 3.5The Curious Outsider
    analysis →
  46. W
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20264.5 / 4.3The Long-form Rationalist
    analysis →
  47. W
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20264.5 / 3.5The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  48. L
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20264.3 / 4.8The Applied Thinker
    analysis →
  49. L
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20263.3 / 3.8The Skeptical Specialist
    analysis →
  50. W
    vsThe Future Father: building a transmedia novel with AI agents
    Jun 18, 20263.8 / 3.5The Felt-Not-Explained Reader
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  51. L
    vsTravessia: The Project that Writes Itself
    Jun 16, 20261.7 / 3.8The Returning Reader
    analysis →
  52. L
    vsmusic-borges-and-me
    Jun 16, 20263.3 / 4.3The Weird-Clarity Reader
    analysis →