Rosencrantz Coin: Testing Whether LLMs Respect Probability

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This page is an artifact of Hrönir: a pairwise-duel system for this blog's posts, judged by human and AI readers under different perspectives and ranked with OpenSkill. One battle, perspective, or version doesn't tell the whole story on its own.

See how it works and the full ranking →

#12global rank
-1rank change
55%win rate
28/51wins / duels
15.063ordinal

Win rate over time (each point = one duel, chronological)

Perspective rankings

Duel history (51 total)

  1. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 29, 20264.3 / 3.5fact checker
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  2. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 29, 20264.5 / 4.3returning reader
    analysis →
  3. W
    vsThe Three Imperatives at Delphi
    Jul 28, 20264.2 / 3.8skeptical specialist
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  4. W
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 27, 20264.8 / 3.8applied thinker
    analysis →
  5. L
    vsThe Art of Delegation: Signatures and Sandboxes
    Jul 24, 20264.0 / 4.5craft listener
    analysis →
  6. L
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 23, 20263.8 / 4.3skeptical specialist
    analysis →
  7. L
    vsThe Three Imperatives at Delphi
    Jul 23, 20263.3 / 4.0lyric as poem
    analysis →
  8. W
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 22, 20264.5 / 3.3curious outsider
    analysis →
  9. L
    vsThe Serpent's Egg
    Jul 20, 20262.5 / 4.3fact checker
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  10. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 19, 20264.8 / 4.3craft listener
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  11. W
    vsCrossing After Interference
    Jul 17, 20264.3 / 3.8curious outsider
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  12. W
    vsCrossing After Interference
    Jul 17, 20264.5 / 2.8meme sommelier
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  13. L
    vsReclaiming the Harness
    Jul 15, 20263.5 / 4.3comedy carries argument
    analysis →
  14. L
    vsIt's Raining Truth
    Jul 14, 20263.8 / 4.0skeptical specialist
    analysis →
  15. L
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 14, 20263.5 / 4.3meme sommelier
    analysis →
  16. L
    vsThe Three Imperatives at Delphi
    Jul 13, 20264.0 / 4.3meme sommelier
    analysis →
  17. L
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jul 12, 20263.3 / 4.5applied thinker
    analysis →
  18. L
    vsAre they really using a Reddit post to help bomb a submarine in Iran?
    Jul 11, 20263.2 / 4.1craft listener
    analysis →
  19. L
    vsThe Third Half and the Fourth Wall
    Jul 11, 20263.6 / 4.8lyric as poem
    analysis →
  20. W
    vsEu ia escrever sobre o infinito de novo.
    Jul 10, 20264.7 / 3.1returning reader
    analysis →
  21. L
    vsAre they really using a Reddit post to help bomb a submarine in Iran?
    Jul 9, 20263.8 / 4.5fact checker
    analysis →
  22. W
    vsThe Serpent's Egg
    Jul 8, 20264.7 / 3.9long form rationalist
    analysis →
  23. W
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 8, 20264.1 / 3.0lyric as poem
    analysis →
  24. L
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 7, 20263.8 / 4.3comedy carries argument
    analysis →
  25. W
    vsTwo Questions, Out Loud
    Jul 6, 20264.2 / 2.8skeptical specialist
    analysis →
  26. L
    vsPontifex: A Novel Architecture for Semantic Probing
    Jul 6, 20264.5 / 4.8weird clarity
    analysis →
  27. L
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 5, 20262.8 / 4.5curious outsider
    analysis →
  28. L
    vsThe Serpent's Egg
    Jul 4, 20263.5 / 4.3skeptical specialist
    analysis →
  29. W
    vsPrimavera carregando...
    Jul 4, 20264.8 / 3.5internet native
    analysis →
  30. L
    vsThe Third Half and the Fourth Wall
    Jul 3, 20263.5 / 4.8long form rationalist
    analysis →
  31. W
    vsThe Third Half and the Fourth Wall
    Jul 2, 20264.8 / 2.5curious outsider
    analysis →
  32. W
    vsWho Am I?
    Jul 1, 20264.8 / 3.5curious outsider
    analysis →
  33. W
    vsWho the asterisk protects
    Jul 1, 20264.8 / 3.8internet native
    analysis →
  34. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 30, 20264.0 / 3.8felt not explained
    analysis →
  35. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 29, 20264.3 / 3.8craft listener
    analysis →
  36. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 29, 20264.5 / 3.3weird clarity
    analysis →
  37. W
    vsMilk at the Bar
    Jun 29, 20264.8 / 3.4lateral essayist
    analysis →
  38. W
    vsThe Time
    Jun 24, 20264.8 / 3.0applied thinker
    analysis →
  39. L
    vsThe Time
    Jun 24, 20264.5 / 4.8felt not explained
    analysis →
  40. W
    vsThe Time
    Jun 24, 20264.5 / 1.5applied thinker
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  41. W
    vsClipes
    Jun 23, 20264.8 / 4.0applied thinker
    analysis →
  42. W
    vsPaperclip Rhapsody
    Jun 23, 20264.8 / 2.5long form rationalist
    analysis →
  43. L
    vsMenino Que Você Foi
    Jun 23, 20263.6 / 4.7internet native
    analysis →
  44. W
    vsMenino Que Você Foi
    Jun 23, 20264.3 / 3.5curious outsider
    analysis →
  45. W
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20264.5 / 4.3long form rationalist
    analysis →
  46. W
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20264.5 / 3.5applied thinker
    analysis →
  47. L
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20264.3 / 4.8applied thinker
    analysis →
  48. L
    vsWhat I Learned Orchestrating AI Agents to Preserve Family Memory
    Jun 22, 20263.3 / 3.8skeptical specialist
    analysis →
  49. W
    vsThe Future Father: building a transmedia novel with AI agents
    Jun 18, 20263.8 / 3.5felt not explained
    analysis →
  50. L
    vsTravessia: The Project that Writes Itself
    Jun 16, 20261.7 / 3.8returning reader
    analysis →
  51. L
    vsmusic-borges-and-me
    Jun 16, 20263.3 / 4.3weird clarity
    analysis →